MAP

This week, MAP market slid down amid weak scenario. As of Dec. 26, reference price of 55% powder was at USD 417-424/T in main producing areas. Early this week, price of 55% powder MAP was reduced to USD 424/T by individual large plants in Hubei. Then some MAP plants in Southwest and Central China successively lowered price by USD 7-14/T. Downstream demand was sluggish and winter storage market was slow. MAP stocks continued to pile up caused by unsmooth order receiving. Raw material sulfur market mixed ups and downs amid stability, liquid ammonia market moved downward, and phosphate ore market held steady. Market players held strong bearish attitude towards later MAP market. In export: International MAP market mixed ups and downs. Currently, Chinese 55% granular was offered at USD 492/T FOB, 60% granular was offered at USD 577/T FOB, and 63% granular was offered at USD 613/T FOB. MAP price in bulk was at USD 600-616/T FOB and USD 570-580/T FOB in Morocco and the Baltic Sea respectively. 63% MAP price in bulk was at USD 635/T CFR in Brazil. According to the data from the customs, in Jan.-Nov. 2024, the total import volume of MAP was 15,169.327 tonnes, and the total export volume was 1,875,115.197 tonnes.

On supply: MAP supply declined slightly. Individual plants in Central China curtailed or halted production.

On demand: NPK market registered stable-and-weak scenario with lackluster trading performance. Major NPK plants basically maintained offers stable with actual trading price negotiable. Currently, NPK supply remained loose. Some NPK plants in East China and parts of Central China still curtailed or halted production. At the same time, dealers became less active in procurement. Thus, NPK plants mostly adopted a flexible approach to adjust production under shipment pressure.

On raw materials: Phosphate ore market held steady with decreasing supply. Plants in Southwest China kept normal production while some plants in Central China planned to stop production. Some plants in the north curbed production. Downstream major phosphate fertilizer plants had no replenishment plan while middle and small plants purchased resources on need-to basis. Liquid ammonia market moved downward. Owing to gradual production resumption in Shanxi and Hebei, coupled with rising supply in Shandong, market price in the north stopped rising and fell back. Market price in East China remained largely stable with small corrections because of ample supply. Market price in Hunan and Hubei showed stable-to-soft scenario caused by price reduction in the north. Market price in Southwest China slid down weakly because of ordinary downstream demand. Domestic sulfur market mixed ups and downs amid stability. A majority of sulfur producers maintained offers stable while a few producers adopted a flexible approach to adjust offers based on their stocks and delivery.

In Central China: In Hubei, mainstream price of 55% powder was at USD 417-424/T, mainstream price of 58% powder was at USD 466-473/T and mainstream price of 60% powder was at USD 501-508/T. In Henan, mainstream price of 55% powder was at USD 431-438/T, mainstream price of 58% powder was at USD 466-480/T and mainstream price of 60% powder was at USD 501-515/T.

In Southwest China: In Yunnan, mainstream price of 55% powder was at USD 424-431/T, mainstream price of 58% powder was at USD 452-459/T and mainstream price of 60% powder was at USD 480-487/T. In Guizhou, mainstream price of 55% powder was at USD 417-431/T, mainstream price of 58% powder was at USD 466-473/T and mainstream price of 60% powder was at USD 494-501/T. In Sichuan, mainstream price of 55% powder was at USD 431-438/T, mainstream price of 58% powder was at USD 466-473/T and mainstream price of 60% powder was at USD 501-508/T.

In East China: In Anhui, mainstream price of 55% powder was at USD 431-438/T, mainstream price of 58% powder was at USD 466-473/T and mainstream price of 60% powder was at USD 501-508/T. In Shandong, mainstream price of 55% powder was at USD 438-445/T, mainstream price of 58% powder was at USD 473-487/T and mainstream price of 60% powder was at USD 501-508/T. In Jiangsu, mainstream price of 55% powder was at USD 431-445/T, mainstream price of 58% powder was at USD 473-487/T and mainstream price of 60% powder was at USD 501-508/T.

In North China: In Hebei, mainstream price of 55% powder was at USD 424-431/T, mainstream price of 58% powder was at USD 466-473/T and mainstream price of 60% powder was at USD 494-501/T.

In Northwest China: In Shaanxi, mainstream price of 55% powder was at USD 417-426/T, mainstream price of 58% powder was at USD 466-473/T and mainstream price of 60% powder was at USD 501-508/T.

As for demand, downstream buying interests will not turn active. Thus, individual MAP plants may cut price for sales. As for supply, MAP plants will continue to curtail production. Besides, due to rare downstream orders, MAP stocks pile up continuously. From raw material market, sulfur market will move upward, liquid ammonia market will fluctuate weakly within a narrow range, and phosphate ore market will change a little next week. As a result, MAP market is possible to inch down amid stability next week, with 55% powder price estimated at USD 410-424/T.