MAP

This week, MAP market moved down regionally. As of Jan. 2, reference price of 55% powder was at USD 403-424/T in main producing areas. Terminal buying interests were not active. Due to individual orders and high cost, MAP plants gradually suffered heavy production and sales pressure. Holders sometimes cut price for sales, but the effects were not good. In export: International MAP market changed little. Currently, Chinese 55% granular was offered at USD 492/T FOB, 60% granular was offered at USD 577/T FOB, and 63% granular was offered at USD 613/T FOB. MAP price in bulk was at USD 600-616/T FOB and USD 570-580/T FOB in Morocco and the Baltic Sea respectively. 63% MAP price in bulk was at USD 635/T CFR in Brazil. According to the data from the customs, in Jan.-Nov. 2024, the total import volume of MAP was 15,169.327 tonnes, and the total export volume was 1,875,115.197 tonnes.

On supply: MAP supply dropped slightly. Individual plants in Central and Southwest China gradually curtailed or halted production.

On demand: NPK market ran soft amid stalemate. NPK plants did not adjust offers obviously and trading price tended to decline. Currently, NPK supply rose slightly. Some NPK plants in East China resumed normal production. However, a majority of NPK plants held low production caused by unsmooth delivery and growing stocks.

On raw materials: Phosphate ore market remained largely stable. Plants in Southwest China kept normal production and many of them suspended order receiving. Some plants in Central China had stopped production. Some plants in the north still shut down. Downstream major phosphate fertilizer plants would have no replenishment plan for a short time while individual middle and small plants purchased resources. Liquid ammonia market consecutively went down with poor trading performance. Due to loose supply and unsmooth delivery, plants in different regions bid for delivery. Then fresh low prices were gradually seen in the market. Domestic sulfur market stayed largely stable with regional ups and downs.

In Central China: In Hubei, mainstream price of 55% powder was at USD 417-424/T, mainstream price of 58% powder was at USD 466-473/T and mainstream price of 60% powder was at USD 501-508/T. In Henan, mainstream price of 55% powder was at USD 431-438/T, mainstream price of 58% powder was at USD 466-480/T and mainstream price of 60% powder was at USD 501-515/T.

In Southwest China: In Yunnan, mainstream price of 55% powder was at USD 424-431/T, mainstream price of 58% powder was at USD 445-459/T and mainstream price of 60% powder was at USD 480-487/T. In Guizhou, mainstream price of 55% powder was at USD 417-431/T, mainstream price of 58% powder was at USD 466-473/T and mainstream price of 60% powder was at USD 494-501/T. In Sichuan, mainstream price of 55% powder was at USD 417/T, mainstream price of 58% powder was at USD 466-473/T and mainstream price of 60% powder was at USD 501-508/T.

In East China: In Anhui, mainstream price of 55% powder was at USD 431-438/T, mainstream price of 58% powder was at USD 466-473/T and mainstream price of 60% powder was at USD 501-508/T. In Shandong, mainstream price of 55% powder was at USD 438-445/T, mainstream price of 58% powder was at USD 473-487/T and mainstream price of 60% powder was at USD 501-508/T. In Jiangsu, mainstream price of 55% powder was at USD 431-445/T, mainstream price of 58% powder was at USD 473-487/T and mainstream price of 60% powder was at USD 501-508/T.

In North China: In Hebei, mainstream price of 55% powder was at USD 424-431/T, mainstream price of 58% powder was at USD 466-473/T and mainstream price of 60% powder was at USD 494-501/T.

In Northwest China: In Shaanxi, mainstream price of 55% powder was at USD 403-408/T, mainstream price of 58% powder was at USD 466-473/T and mainstream price of 60% powder was at USD 501-508/T.

As for demand, downstream demand will be hard to pick up from NPK market for a short time. As for supply, some MAP plants will still adjust production under production and sales pressure next week. However, individual MAP plants may cumulate resources for stocks even with unsmooth delivery. From raw material market, sulfur market will register firm-to-up scenario, liquid ammonia market will fluctuate weakly, and phosphate ore market will sustain stability next week. As a result, MAP market is possible to fluctuate amid stable-and-weak scenario next week, with 55% powder price estimated at USD 403-417/T.